Archive for the ‘Policy’ Category

The Arctic Sea & the North Korea/Middle East connection

Sunday, October 18th, 2009
The ship's name may appear to be the North Korean cargo ship, Jin Jon 2, but don't be fooled: it's still the Arctic Sea.

The ship's name may appear to be the North Korean cargo ship, Jin Jon 2, but don't be fooled: it's still the Arctic Sea.

(Part Four, in an apparently never ending series.)

The last time we left off the saga of the Arctic Sea, the crew had been freed by the (once again mighty?) Russian navy–after a bizarre incidence of piracy in European water. But now, you’d think with the alleged pirates thrown into the slammer, the story would end. And yet …

What exactly befell the ship, called the Arctic Sea, is still largely unknown. In fact, nearly eight weeks after it was supposedly liberated by the Russian Navy, the ship is said to remain at sea under military control and has yet to make port for needed repairs. Four members of the ship’s crew have not been able to leave, despite repeated calls by their families for their release.

As if that wasn’t strange enough, one more bizarre tidbit has leaked out: the hijackers tried to change the name of the ship to “Jon Jin 2.” It just so happens that the name, as well as the corresponding identification number, belong to a North Korean general cargo ship. Which looks nothing like the Arctic Sea, and was docked in Angola at the time.

Photographs from the Russian Prosecutor General’s Investigative Committee document the new name, painted on the ship:

Jon Jin 2 -- nope, really, its the Arctic Sea.

The Arctic Sea's masquerade.

The second in in command insists there was nothing but lumber on the ship.

“There was only lumber on board,” Mr. Falin said. “I was personally in all areas and in the ballast tanks. There was nothing else in there. I can say this with 100 percent certainty.”

Perhaps. Hijackers, what do you have to say for yourselves?

The hijackers … continue to deny any wrongdoing, maintaining that they were ecologists conducting research in the Baltic Sea when they encountered inclement weather and sought refuge aboard the Arctic Sea.

Well, I bet those Russian government officials and investigators will give us the straight truth. The government, naturally, maintains that there was nothing but lumber aboard as well, but why would the wayward “ecologists” commandeer this ship in heavily trafficked/policed European waters? Why would Russia send warships on a frantic chase … three weeks after the hijacking? And why would they not let the crew go over a month later, nor let the ship dock? The Russian government line and Choose Your Own Ending to the Tale, after the jump.

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The backlash against the pimp of Jidda ends with the crack of a whip; Yemenis making movies

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Just as a quick update for those wondering the fate of Mazen Abdul Jawad, the Saudi who spoke openly about his escapades on an LBC program over the summer: A Saudi court has sentenced the divorced father of four to five years in prison and 1,000 lashes–for violating the Kingdom’s law against “publicizing vice.” Video of the segment here (knowledge of Arabic helps … but you can get the gist, I think, from the visuals):

In other visual media news, the Yemen Embassy is participating in the Arabian Sights: Contemporary Arab Cinema (starting tonight in D.C., dear readers), with the very first Yemeni-produced movie, according to the press releases/the amazing trailer:

“Yemen’s first locally produced film, An intriguing and compelling plot, An exploration to the price of terrorism”

I’m not exactly sure what the plot will be, but based on the trailer, if you know what Allahu Akbar means, you can get by without knowing Arabic. I’m also left wondering; does first locally-produced film really just mean first government-funded propaganda feature-length propaganda piece? Interesting timing, with the Yemeni government confirming yesterday that “hundreds” of soldiers have been wounded and killed in the fighting against the Houthi in the northern region of Sa’ada.

(HT: BT for the Jawad update.)

The Gospel according to Jim Krane: Dubai as savior of the Middle East, Palestinians

Monday, September 7th, 2009

Note: Posting will be more sporadic going forward. Now’s the time, if there ever was one, to hook up Google Reader and add this blog as an RSS feed, so your Reader will magically tell you when I’ve written something new.

Dubai in the 1960s.

Dubai in the 1960s.

Over at Steve Clemons’s The Washington Note, guest poster Jim Krane whipped up a storm last week by claiming that Dubai offers up an ideal model, one that other countries in the region should emulate. Call it the “Arabs need to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps” theory. I’m actually having a really difficult time trying to summarize the post, which is just all over the place, but I’ll give it a shot anyway:

  • The U.S. is prolonging the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and otherwise bringing destruction to the region.
  • The U.S. can’t fix the Middle East. The U.S. didn’t help Dubai. Arab countries need to serve their own interests.
  • How?  Follow Dubai’s business-before-politics model. Don’t bother trying to help the Palestinians or complaining about Israel.

Then, watch how Krane parries the straw-man counterargument!

But wait, Dubai is in financial trouble. How could it be a role model?

Dubai’s downturn is temporary. Being one of the world’s most globalized cities, it couldn’t help but be infected by a global recession. The contagion kneecapped each one of its economic pillars: Shipping, logistics, tourism, and its binging real estate sector. Most of these pillars remain sound.

I guess he meant to say temporarily kneecapped? Bit of a strong word for something that remains “sound.”

The whirlwind, logic-free tour continues, with a reminder of the controversy from 2006 when a Dubai-based firm bought the operations of some U.S. ports.

Then we arrive at my favorite part of his incoherent evangelism:

The Dubai model is a mixture of social freedom, unbridled immigration, and raw capitalism. It is overseen by a government that is one of the world’s least democratic. This is no accident. Dubai avoids both elections and the Arab obsession with politics, especially the syndrome of feeling slighted by the West.

The writing is, if you haven’t been able to tell already, a train-wreck. “Unbridled immigration”? I suppose by unbridled he means to say unregulated and prone to coercive practices. Near the end, he concedes that the labor market is “abusive,” the dependence on the real estate market is crippling, and “raw capitalism” and its attendant consumerism also mean unbridled pollution and general deterioration of the environment.

But let’s ignore all that, and focus on the best part of Dubai: it is undemocratic, so it doesn’t have to deal with pesky elections or ideas of citizenship that demand engagement and involvement from the people of the country. Instead, citizenship in Dubai is predicated purely on transfers of wealth and privilege from the government to its citizens.

If Dubai wasn’t autocratic, think of how terrible it would be! Guest workers would (hopefully? eventually?) have a voice, or at least the ability to advocate for themselves without being subject to arrest.

Putting aside arguments about the inherent strengths and weaknesses of democracy, it’s absolutely daft to call Dubai a model that could be replicated elsewhere in the Arab world. I’m sure that if the Palestinians had a booming real estate market and large petroleum/natural gas reserves, the Emirati self-help model would serve them well. But as it stands, I don’t think the Gazans can count on tourism to fix their problems.

PIRATES IN EUROPE?!

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009
Comparisons to the Barbary pirates are imminent. Prepare thyself.

Comparisons to the Barbary pirates are imminent. Prepare thyself.

I was going to write a follow-up post about how inevitable it was that the coverage of the Holbrooke event would center around an off-hand line (or “flippant quip,” as Katherine Tiedemann at the Washington Note/NAF/AfPak Daily Brief would have it, who admits that much more substantial items were discussed, and then proceeds to write about nothing but the “flippant quip”:

I’ve just come from live-tweeting a conference with Amb. Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and members of his interagency team hosted by the Center for American Progress. While there were certainly substantive issues discussed (the role of Iran, the upcoming presidential elections in Afghanistan, the state of the Pakistani Taliban post-Baitullah Mehsud), what caught my attention was a flippant quip by the ambassador.

Yes, the parentheticals in my writing are getting out of control. I’ll try to keep that in mind.)

But I think the final straw was Spencer Ackerman’s self-twittered/promoted/describedomnibus thinkpiece about the shape and the stakes of the current Afghanistan debate,” entitled “Obama Faces Rising Anxiety on Afghanistan.” The only anxiety rising was mine, as I slogged through his lengthy summary of progressive handwringing in the nation’s capital. So that’s that for that topic, at least for me and for now.

Onto the topic at hand. The A.P. filed a story early this afternoon:

First the ship reported it had been attacked in waters off Sweden. Then it sailed with no apparent problems through one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. And then it disappeared.

The Arctic Sea, a Maltese-flagged cargo ship, was supposed to make port in Algeria with its cargo of timber on Aug. 4. More than a week later, there’s no sign of the ship or its Russian crew.

Piracy has exploded off the coast of lawless Somalia — but could this be an almost unheard of case of sea banditry in European waters?

Naturally, near the end, the article cites a number of experts who say no:

”There have been no attacks in European waters,” said Pottengal Mukundan, director of the London-based International Maritime Bureau. ”It’s not the kind of area where pirates would find it easy to operate.”

Nick Davis, the chief executive of the Merchant Maritime Warfare Centre, told the BBC that if anything had happened to the ship, cargo would have been found.

”I strongly suspect that this is probably a commercial dispute with its owner and a third party and they’ve decided to take matters into their own hands,” he said Wednesday.

But that’s never stopped inane journalistic parallels before!

UPDATE: A very belated thanks and HT to RAG.

Success in AfPak: Special Envoy Holbrooke invokes Justice Stewart Potter

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009
Not pornography.

Not pornography.

I was at the CAP event on Afghanistan this morning, starring John Podesta, Holbrooke, and nearly Holbrooke’s entire interagency team.

I generally can deal with Stephen Walt, but the snarkiness in assessing the event (which, judging by his citation, he didn’t attend) is a bit much:

For those of you who worry that the Obama administration doesn’t have a clear strategy in Afghanistan or Pakistan, or even a clear sense of what our overall objectives are: relax. You needn’t fret, because Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke knows how to define success.

… Holbrooke was asked what success would look like in Afghanistan … His response, according to Spencer Ackerman, was that while the U.S. had to be “clear about what our national interests are,” ultimately, success would require taking a “Supreme Court test” — “We’ll know it when we see it.” (This is how Justice Potter Stewart defined pornography).

So I guess those elaborate benchmarks the administration has been trying to develop don’t really matter. Holbrooke will just let us know when we’ve won. Or lost. Until then, you critics can stop asking those pesky questions.

Or because the administration hasn’t yet determined what those benchmarks will be? From my understanding, without notes at hand, Holbrooke was referring more specifically to indefinite civilian efforts, not the military. He made it clear from the start that he would be addressing solely his side of things.

Luckily, Tim Fernholz over at TAPPED (who also found the invocation of the abandoned, vague obscenity test “not comforting”) has a spot-on chronicle of the goings-on.

What was somewhat comforting was Holbrooke’s clear understanding of the metrics question, how we measure success. I’d like to think it is a legacy of his time as a foreign service officer in Vietnam, when Robert MacNamara’s infamously statistical approach to war failed in part because it did not understand the correct measures of success; the use of enemy body counts are perhaps the most prominent example. Today, Holbrooke emphasized the difference between inputs — what his team is bringing to and doing in Afghanistan — and outputs — the actual results of those efforts. For example, the administration won’t be focusing simply on how many Afghan troops are trained but also on how many missions they can handle on their own.

While the actual measurements of these outputs are unclear, an administration official tells me there are approxmiately 50 categories that will be used to understand the results of the new strategy. At least some of these measurements will be made public in a report to Congress that is due on September 24; data is already being collected for this report.

Check out that reporting! Puts certain others who snag second-hand quotes to shame.

(For those wondering about the photo, the name Stewart Potter put in my mind a certain Frank Capra movie.)

North Korea, Nukes and Myanmar. Or was it Burma? (It was.)

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009
The sun never sets on the Powerful and Prosperous Nation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The sun never sets on the Powerful and Prosperous Nation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Addendum to yesterday’s post about North Korean proliferation: the nytimes has a short piece about the first North Korean ship searched for nuclear material, under the new U.N. sanctions:

The ship anchored without authorization in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a territory of India in the Bay of Bengal, last week, according to the Indian military.

Indian officials said it was carrying more than 16,000 tons of sugar bound for the Middle East. But the ship’s proximity to Myanmar, a North Korean ally, and the fact that it had no apparent reason to be in the area raised suspicions.

The coast guard intercepted the ship after chasing it for six hours, and detained 39 North Korean crew members.

After two days of searching and of questioning the crew, India’s Navy and Coast Guard handed the ship over to police and intelligence services, having found no evidence of illegal cargo, according to the Press Trust of India.

Ashok Chand, a senior police officer in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, told Reuters that further tests were being conducted.

But it remains a mystery why the ship was in Indian waters at all.

India has watched warily for signs that North Korea is helping Myanmar build a nuclear reactor.

Adm. Sureesh Mehta of the Indian Navy told reporters in Delhi over the weekend that “the ship had no business to be there.”

Only the Great Leader knows.

UPDATE: The Onion weighs in on the Great Leader’s prospects.

When the “two-state solution” is no solution

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

Borders? What borders?

Robert Malley and Hussein Agha published an op-ed in today’s nytimes, decrying the meaningless of the phrase “two-state solution.” Their arguments rests on pairing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Khaled Meshal, essentially his Hamas counterpart. Both have recently accepted the need for a two-state solution, but only leads to what the authors call “an existential struggle between two worldviews.”

That so many attempts to resolve the conflict have failed is reason to be wary. It is almost as if the parties, whenever they inch toward an artful compromise over the realities of the present, are inexorably drawn back to the ghosts of the past. It is hard today to imagine a resolution that does not entail two states. But two states may not be a true resolution if the roots of this clash are ignored. The ultimate territorial outcome almost certainly will be found within the borders of 1967. To be sustainable, it will need to grapple with matters left over since 1948. The first step will be to recognize that in the hearts and minds of Israelis and Palestinians, the fundamental question is not about the details of an apparently practical solution. It is an existential struggle between two worldviews.

For years, virtually all attention has been focused on the question of a future Palestinian state, its borders and powers. As Israelis make plain by talking about the imperative of a Jewish state, and as Palestinians highlight when they evoke the refugees’ rights, the heart of the matter is not necessarily how to define a state of Palestine. It is, as in a sense it always has been, how to define the state of Israel.

For Malley & co., the proposed settlement freeze is nice, but meaningless. Even if Netanyahu’s government relents, the settlements must be removed, not frozen, so we’re back at the 1967 borders. But even if we do that, the Spirit of ‘48–the existential struggle–will remain. So, basically, why even try?

What Malley is invoking–the definition of the state of Israel as Jewish, right of return for Palestinian refugees, etc. etc., are what the peace process calls final status issues. To be resolved at the end, that is. And as Malley sees it, there is no reconciling the two positions. E.g., Either Jerusalem is the undivided capital of eternal Israel, or half of it becomes East Jerusalem and the capital of Palestine–and thus divided.

Luckily, Obama’s Mitchell team at State has a better handle on things, re: settlement freeze. What Malley is calling for, in between the lines, is for Israel to concede all their current positions–predominantly, the idea of Israel as a  Jewish state. Proponents of defining Israel as Jewish usually (conveniently?) fail to mention that 20% of Israelis are Christian and Muslim (and Jewish) Arabs.

And while many would agree (including myself) on the need for concessions from Israel (with simultaneous concessions from the Arab states, e.g. normalization of relations with Israel), simply dictating terms to the Israelis won’t work. The Israelis won’t accept it. And then there’s no peace agreement at all.

Negotiation on final status issues must correlate with everyday, on-the-ground improvements in the lives of both Israelis and Palestinians. That’s why the settlement freeze matters.

There is injustice, certainly. But reality is not black and white. Its shades of grey call for an incremental approach, one that works toward resolving final status issues while also improving the lives of the people.

The Oslo approach failed for a number of reasons, but on the practical level–which is where Malley directs his argument–the people didn’t see any change. They saw Palestinians and Arabs concede and compromise, and in the end, the Israelis elected Netanyahu to his first term in the 1990s, on the principle that land for peace would never work. Negotiations cooled pretty quickly after that. The second intifada and Operation Cast Lead in January of this year put an end to the little steps taken toward normalization between Israel and the Arab states following Oslo. It’s easy to say we’re just back to where we started. But now is not the time to give up on the peace process; some things have changed, particularly with the Arab Peace Initiative. Grievances have grown on both sides, but so has experience. We have tried before, and now know what doesn’t work. The only options are to alter the approach and try again, or to give up.

Cynicism is probably warranted, considering the way things have gone before. But let’s try to keep a little bit of hope alive.

The North Korean strategy gets all Cold War on us

Monday, August 10th, 2009

If a domino falls in East Asia and no one is around to hear it, does it matter?

Shhh… nobody say Domino Theory.

No, we’re suddenly caught up in containment:

Mr. Obama won a little-publicized victory in that effort a few weeks ago when the White House used newly granted authority from the United Nations to put a destroyer on the tail of the Kang Nam I, a rusting cargo ship believed to be taking weapons to Myanmar, formerly Burma. No one is sure what the cargo was, and the Navy avoided a direct confrontation. But the Kang Nam finally turned around and went home, its cargo undelivered.

Still, there are reasons to wonder whether containment of North Korea can work. The core idea is that wariness and time are the best instruments with which to let a corrupt, inept government rot from within, as when the Soviet Union collapsed. “I wish they’d conduct a nuclear test every week,” a member of Mr. Obama’s team joked recently, referring to estimates that North Korea has only enough fuel for 8 to 12 weapons.

I think this might be the best wonk-joke I’ve ever seen (which is not saying all that much).

So containment? Did that work for Russia? Or did Glasnost do in the old Soviet Union? And isn’t Putin just reconstituting the USSR anyway? These are questions for an international relations term paper.

Setting aside questions of historical analogies, why would containment not work?

The problem is that every American president since Harry Truman has underestimated how much rot the North Korean regime could withstand. Each thought the North could fall on his watch. After all, it has been the most sanctioned nation on earth since the early 1950’s, and it has recently cut the few deep economic ties that it made in the past decade with the South.

Ah, that. So what are the other options? Threaten invasion? I’d be interested in what my dear readers have to say.

I think one of the most fascinating aspects of the article comes in very late: “there are unconfirmed reports that the North is helping the Burmese build a reactor in their country.” Let’s just hope containment does better at stopping nuclear proliferation than, say, the efforts against A.Q. Khan in Pakistan/Iran.

The dark side of Dubai

Monday, August 10th, 2009

Migrant construction workers in Dubai, easily identified by their uniform jumpsuits.

Migrant construction workers in Dubai, easily identified by their uniform jumpsuits.

I’ve written about the Gulf before; WaPo published a length piece about the plight of foreign workers, caught between the economic downturn and the legal/political systems of the autocratic Gulf states. These countries’ restrictive labor laws and lax enforcement of labor protections allow abuse to flourish. I wrote about the workers in Qatar here. The working man isn’t really covered here, but I can’t blame WaPo for focusing on the more glamorous side, the glittering towers on the seaside.

Herve Jaubert, a French spy who left espionage to make leisure submarines for the wealthy, was riding high.

Bankrolled by Dubai World, a government-owned conglomerate, he built a submarine workshop on the Persian Gulf, lived rent-free in a villa with a pool and tooled around town in a red Lamborghini. He had two Hummers. He vacationed with local plutocrats.

Jaubert said he heard whispers about Dubai’s darker side — the abuse of desperate laborers from impoverished Asian lands, the jailing of the occasional Westerner who crossed a sheik — but “I brushed it all off. I saw glamour. I saw marble columns, mirrors and money.”

To say nothing of the less fortunate–the non-Westerner working in a Gulf country. But even Western countries are not inclined to criticize the governments of countries that host naval ships or ports or bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai), and the U.S. nearly struck a nuclear deal with Dubai until that unfortunate video of a member of a royal family torturing an Afghani grain merchant.

Today, the former intelligence operative, who fled Dubai last summer in a rubber dinghy, is a wanted man. In June, a Dubai court convicted him in absentia on charges of embezzling $3.8 million and handed down a five-year sentence, plus a big fine. Jaubert, speaking recently at his new home near West Palm Beach, Fla., said he stole nothing and vowed never to set foot in Dubai again. He said he fled because of gruesome threats by interrogators to stick needles up his nose and what he described as constantly shifting, and all bogus, accusations relating to bullets, murder and the finances of Dubai World’s now-defunct luxury submarine subsidiary.

“If I hadn’t escaped, I’d be in the same hell as everyone else,” said Jaubert, one of scores of expatriate business people in this gleaming city-state who have been accused of crimes — and, in some cases, jailed for long periods without being charged.

Jaubert’s troubles began two years ago when Dubai’s then-booming economy was showing the first faint signs of strain. Local stock and property prices have since swooned, and the tempo of arrests for alleged business misdeeds ranging from a dud check — a criminal offense here — to serious fraud has picked up sharply.

Dubai’s government declined to comment on Jaubert’s allegations of mistreatment, but it has targeted what it sees as dodgy dealmakers and deadbeat debtors, and has declared “no tolerance” of “anybody who makes illegal profits.” For many expatriates, however, this smacks of a hunt for foreign culprits to blame for the sheikdom’s sliding economic fortunes.

The last part seems slightly speculative. A massive, widespread boom in wealth hides the drain of corruption, or the flaws of a bad business plan. So perhaps, the crackdown on foreigners is more due to the abating tolerance of the ruling elite for failure. Seriously, the ex-French spy was building luxury submarines … Not the brightest business plan. But also, probably not his idea in the first–more likely an invitation from a more idiosyncratic member of the royal family. And therein lies the scape-goating. It wasn’t the mismanagement of investments by the royalty; it was the corruption brought by foreigners!

More after the jump:

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The health care debate

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

The Second Citizen has a great post about the disturbing trends in the discussion about health care reform:

When Barack Obama was running for president, my family hosted a house party for neighbors who were supporters and others who were on the fence. We met a lot of people that night from the surrounding blocks, and at one point we discussed why the election mattered to us - and why we were supporting then-Senator Obama. One neighbor, a hospital nurse, explained to a room of about 25 of us why healthcare reform meant so much to her. Every day, she said, she sees sick and injured people brought into the emergency room. Many of those are children, and accompanying them are nervous mothers and fathers. As she choked up a little bit, she described to a silent audience the look she so often sees on the faces of fathers who quietly take her aside - out of earshot of their wives and children - to tell her that they can’t afford to pay for their child’s treatment. Grown men, trying their best to protect and provide the way their fathers and grandfathers did before them - reduced to humiliation and tears as they softly plead, “Please help me. I can’t pay for you to treat my child.”

In this wealthy nation, where we can provide for so much, where we cherish equality, where we rise and fall as one - this is unacceptable. Even beyond that, it is unacceptable on a basic human level that anyone should go without such a basic necessity when the means exist to guarantee it. We can fight over policy details, but we are compelled by our basic compassion to have a good-faith debate on how to solve this problem. A good-faith debate.

That is, a debate where facts and arguments are met with facts and counterarguments. Where ideas are listened to, considered, and responded to honestly. Not a debate where the GOP’s last Vice Presidential candidate tells outrageous lies about “death boards” and killing off mentally-disabled children. Not a debate where FOX News, GOP members of the House, and the Washington Times spread completely made-up stories about the government euthanizing the elderly.

That’s exactly right. A good faith debate. No more claims and counterclaims about who the real neo-nazis are (though in my mind, the answer is clear.)

So yeah, we need to have this debate. We need to talk about this issue. But I have no patience for dishonesty, hatred, demagoguery, or ignorance. Certainly not now, when the stakes are so high. Counter the lies with facts. Fight ignorance with knowledge. And if you hear people telling lies about euthanasia, enemies lists, death boards, or anything else, correct them - calmly and politely, but firmly.